It’s that day of the year where film Twitter is in disarray, people who haven’t been to the movies in six months will start bitching about how they haven’t seen anything nominated, and even the nerdiest of film nerds will tilt their head and say “what the hell is that?” Yes! the Oscar nominations are here and we are prepared for a full breakdown. As I noted in my previews, I didn’t provide any insight for the Best Documentary or short film races as I simply haven’t seen anything. I know, I suck. But overall I think this year’s list of nominees is a great mixture of the best films mostly performed where they had to, a few pleasant surprises from underdogs, and two glaring acting omissions. Let’s dive in:

Best Picture

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water	Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin	The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis	Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once	Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans	The Fabelmans
Tár	Tár
Top Gun: Maverick	Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale	Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking	Women Talking

Score: 9/10 – Not gonna lie, I’m pretty proud of myself here. Going into today I thought there were seven locks for Best Picture with Avatar: The Way of Water, Women Talking, and The Whale potentially missing out. Getting two of those and only missing on The Whale is a W in my book. However, I did not see Triangle of Sadness getting in here, I didn’t even have it on my watchlist. Admittedly I haven’t seen it yet so I’m happy to have some new viewing on the list. As for the rest of the field, big day for EEAAO leading the pack with 11 nominations, The Banshees of Inisherin picked up all nine nominations I had predicted, I was right about The Fabelmans picking up seven nominations but wrong about which ones, and All Quiet on the Western Front picking up eight as an international nominee, two shy of tying the record set by Roma and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

Best Director

Prediction	Actual
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front	Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin	Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once	Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans	Tood Field – Tár
Tood Field – Tár	Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Score: 4/5 – One of the more interesting developments of the day: All Quiet on the Western Front and Elvis pick up eight nominations each but miss out on Best Director making Edward Berger and Baz Luhrmann this year’s Denis Villeneuve. Östlund is perhaps the biggest surprise of the day as I didn’t see anyone have him in contention for Best Director. But still, Spielberg feels like the favorite here but I’m just so happy to see Daniels and McDonagh get their recognition here.

Best Actress

Prediction	Actual
Cate Blanchett – Tár	Cate Blanchett – Tár
Viola Davis – The Woman King	Ana de Armas – Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler – Till	Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans	Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once	Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Score: 3/5 – My biggest fear for today ultimately came true and it was worse than I imagined. Not only did Ana de Armas get in for the abysmal Blonde but she got in at Viola Davis’ expense, thus shutting out The Woman King completely. Her getting in was somewhat expected but Andrea Riseborough on the other hand was a big surprise. Looks like a last minute viral campaign for her did the trick. Deadwyler not betting in isn’t a huge surprise but her AND Davis missing are among the bigger stories of the day.

Best Actor

Prediction	Actual
Austin Butler – Elvis	Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin	Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale	Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Bill Nighy – Living	Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Adam Sandler – Hustle	Bill Nighy – Living

Score: 4/5 – No real surprises here but another year has come and gone and Adam Sandler is still left empty handed. Four of these nominees were locks with the last spot a toss up between Sandler, Mescal, and maybe Tom Cruise but looks like Mescal received a major career boost this morning. My only hope now is that Aftersun becomes more accessible to the masses.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction	Actual
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale	Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin	Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jaime Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once	Jaime Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once	Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Score: 5/5 – I want to pat myself on the back here as this was the most wide open field in the entire race this year and going 5-5 makes me a giddy little guy. I truly feel they got the five most deserving nomniees here though realistically there could be a field made up of Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, Carey Mulligan, Dolly de Leon, and Janelle Monae and I don’t think anyone would flinch.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction	Actual
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans	Branden Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Branden Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin	Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin	Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once	Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking	Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Score: 3/5 – I may have only shot 60% on this one but I’m actually pretty happy with the turnout. I previously had Brian Tyree Henry in here for Causeway but bailed at the last minute in favor of Wishaw or Redmayne. Him getting in might be my favorite nominee of the day, not that he’s the best in this field but that he was a longshot that deserves to be here. The other big takeaway here is who from The Fabelmans made it in. Paul Dano seemed like a lock for his long overdue first nomination only to be replaced my his co-star Judd Hirsch who sets the record for the longest gap between Oscar nominations at 42 years. Again, not what I predicted but I don’t hate this one bit.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery	Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Top Gun: Maverick	Living
The Whale	Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking	Women Talking

Score: 4/5 – So this was my biggest miss of the day. Not only did I have The Whale getting nominated here but I had it winning as well. That should open the door for Women Talking to become the new favorite but not by much. Also I’m psyched Glass Onion made it in as that was one of my picks that I was pulling for emotionally rather than logically. It also probably has some weird place in Oscar trivia history among films in a series that have been nominated for both Original and Adapted Screenplay so hats off to Rian Johnson.

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction	Actual
Aftersun	The Banshees of Inisherin
The Banshees of Inisherin	Everything Everywhere All At Once
Everything Everywhere All At Once	The Fabelmans
The Fabelmans	Tár
Tár	Triangle of Sadness

Score: 4/5 – No major surprises here as Triangle of Sadness gets in over Aftersun. I haven’t seen either film so I have no real insight here but the other four nominees shouldn’t surprise anyone. Banshees is probably the front-runner.

Best Animated Feature

Prediction	Actual
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio	Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On	Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red	The Sea Beast
Wendell & Wild	Turning Red

Score: 4/5 – To be honest I’ve never heard of The Sea Beast and out of the films here I only saw Pinocchio and Marcel so I don’t have a ton to add. However I am very surprised that this was the only nomination for Pinocchio on the day.

Best Cinematography

Prediction	Actual
The Batman	All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis	Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths
Empire of Light	Elvis
The Fabelmans	Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick	Tár

Score: 2/5 – And this is the category that’s going to sink my score for the day. Perhaps the biggest snub of the came from Top Gun: Maverick, the film almost every precursor had pointed toward winning this field. Not only that but what I would have guessed as the runner-up, The Fabelmans, missed too! I’m not too surprised to see All Quiet and Bardo get in here but I don’t really get why Tár made it in over Maverick or The Fabelmans. Elvis probably became the favorite for this this morning.

Best Costume Design

Prediction	Actual
Babylon	Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis	Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once	Everything Everywhere All At Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Score: 4/5 – This one was pretty by-the-book as while I’m not particularly surprised Glass Onion didn’t make it in I’m just disappointed. The costumes were such a fun aspect of that film and while I admit to not seeing Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, I’m just bummed.

Best Film Editing

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	The Banshees of Inisherin
The Banshees of Inisherin	Elvis
Elvis	Everything Everywhere All At Once
Everything Everywhere All At Once	Tár
Top Gun: Maverick	Top Gun: Maverick

Score: 4/5 – Another unforeseen nomination for Tár here. Again, while I’m not that surprised I just don’t understand how that got in over All Quiet on the Western Front. Still, I’m hoping EEAAO pulls this one out.

Best International Feature

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985	Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths	Close
Decision to Leave	EO
The Quiet Girl	The Quiet Girl

Score: 3/5 – So Decision to Leave gets shutout. I am very surprised by that as I had it in my initial Best Picture lineup and in the race for screenplay and director. Among those nominated I have only seen All Quiet but surely that should walk to victory unopposed.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman	The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis	Elvis
The Whale	The Whale

Score: 5/5 – This one seemed relatively straight forward but I’ll take a perfect score where I can get it. Now the only question is which film is the favorite? My money is probably on Elvis.

Best Original Score

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon	Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin	The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans	Everything Everywhere All At Once
Women Talking	The Fabelmans

Score: 4/5 – A surprise nomination for Everything Everywhere All At Once here. I had EEAAO picking up noms in Production Design and Sound so seeing the film’s music pick up the slack is awesome to see. After Women Talking missed here I thought it was curtains on its Best Picture chances but it still managed to squeak in so I’m very happy with this turnout.

Best Original Song

Prediction	Actual
“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio	“This Is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All At Once
“Naatu Naatu” – RRR	“Naatu Naatu” – RRR
“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick	“Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
“New Body Rhumba” – White Noise	“Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

Score: 3/5 – Looks like we’ll be getting performances from both Rhianna and Lady Gaga this year but the the big win of the day here is for RRR which hopefully we get to see a performance featuring NTR Rao Jr. and Ram Charan Teja doing their dance number from the film.

Best Production Design

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water	Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon	Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once	The Fabelmans

Score: 3/5 – Someone’s going to have to explain this one to me. How does Elvis and The Fabelmans get in over Black Panther and EEAAO? Elvis is maybe a little less surprising but The Fabelmans? Fuck outta here with that. Crazy to think that realistically EEAAO led the pack this year and still had some technical categories left on the table. Also this felt like a longshot but I’m bummed that The Northman couldn’t surprise everyone here.

Best Sound

Prediction	Actual
Avatar: The Way of Water	All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman	Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis	The Batman
Everything Everywhere All At Once	Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick	Top Gun: Maverick

Score: 4/5 – Again, crazy that Everything Everywhere All At Once didn’t get in here but at least All Quiet on the Western Front is a worthy opponent. With Top Gun: Maverick missing out on Cinematography this could be the film’s only win but Avatar and Elvis should give it a run for its money.

Best Visual Effects

Prediction	Actual
All Quiet on the Western Front	All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water	Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman	The Batman
Nope	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick	Top Gun: Maverick

Score: 4/5 – I’m surprised the academy said “nope” to Nope this year but I’m glad that Black Panther took its place. Not to keeping complaining about EEAAO missing out on nominations after receiving 11 but seriously how was that film not even shortlisted for this one? And RRR as well? I’m fine with this field as Avatar: The Way of Water was always going to win but the Academy missed out on two great films here.

Final Score: 76/100

Some final thoughts on the nominees:

• The biggest party crasher of the day was hands down Triangle of Sadness snagging Screenplay, Director, and Best Picture. Sure, films like EEAAO, Banshees, and Elvis performed generally how we thought they would I didn’t see Triangle of Sadness scoring any nominations so the get those three is a huge surprise.
• In acting the biggest snubs of the day are certainly Paul Dano, Danielle Deadwyler, and Viola Davis. Dano’s is a little easier to swallow since his equally deserving co-star got in and Brian Tyree Henry was one of the biggest surprises of the day. Deadwyler not getting in will upset many but it’s not THAT surprising given how she’s performed in the precursors. But Davis had nominations from SAG, CCA, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes and The Woman King was one of the best films of the year so to see her left out for trash like Blonde (de Armas is fine but that film is rancid) and the relatively unknown To Leslie feels like a big miss. I wouldn’t even call myself a Viola Davis fan, I’ve even said before how she’s starting to feel like one of those people who just gets nominated for showing up but this time around I felt she deserved a spot.
• I don’t like Tár. I get why others do, but I don’t. What I don’t get is how it did so well in the craft fields like Cinematography and Editing. In my initial projections I had it going 0/5 at the Oscars and with seven nominations it picked up a lot of steam today.
• All jokes aside, The Whale was the biggest loser today. Missing out on Best Picture isn’t a huge surprise but missing Adapted Screenplay felt like a huge miss. Props to Hong Chau for making it in though.
• My updated watchlist after today: Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, Living, To Leslie, and all the International nominees aside from All Quiet.