Academy Award Predictions: Round 4

It’s Academy Award Nomination Announcement Eve and Oscar Claus will soon be here to hop down the chimney and completely ruin some people’s day. My final round of predictions doesn’t differ too much from my previous installment but with the nominees coming tomorrow I want to have one last chance to change my answers only to see my original projections come true. And awayyyyyy we go!

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans


Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

My only change here is swapping out The Woman King with The Whale. Originally I thought we’d see films like Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio and Decision to Leave in here but if either of those and The Woman King sneak in instead of either Avatar, The Whale, or Women Talking I won’t be too surprised. Still I think we can confidently lock in Banshees, Elvis, EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun will all get in. All Quiet on the Western Front should be in there based on the film’s recent performance and the fact that it’s my second best movie of the year but international films and the Academy, while they’ve certainly come a long way in recent years, are often tough to predict.

Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once – I’ve gone into how much I love this movie on plenty of occasions and its recent win at the Critics Choice Awards and record-tying performance with the SAG nominations makes this the current betting favorite.

Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once – See above.

Last One Out: The Woman King – This was one of my favorites from last year so I’m bummed to leave it out but alas, I just don’t see it happening for this one. I’ll be thrilled if it sneaks in over Women Talking or The Whale or even Elvis (not gonna happen) but most the the love this film has received thus far has been for Viola Davis and even she isn’t winning anything. It picked up a handful of nominations from the CCA and a pair each from the BAFTA’s and SAG but none of which indicate this will have its name called for Best Picture tomorrow morning.

Others to Watch: Babylon, The Batman, Decision to Leave, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, RRR

Best Director

Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Todd Field – Tár

I’m calling my shot here with Edward Berger making it into that fifth slot. War plays in this category with recent examples including Sam Mendes (1917), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), and Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk.) The film just had a massive turnout with BAFTA scoring an absurd 14 nominations and I fully expect this to be a contender in several technical categories as well. I’m confident in my picks for Mcdonagh, Daniels, and Spielberg and I’m 95% sure Todd Field will still be in there but if Berger, Luhrmann, Cameron, Polley, or Kasinski want to crash the party he’s probably the first to go.

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – Last time around I noted the The Fabelmans will be this year’s Power of the Dog. That film could easily rack up double digit nominations but strangely enough the only category it feels like a favorite in is this one. Would it be more of a legacy award than giving it to the best director? Probably but that’s a discussion for another time.

Who Should Win: Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – I always think its funny when Best Director and Best Picture don’t go hand-in-hand with one another. It’s hard to separate the two and yet every now and then we see films like Dune or A Star Is Born rack up nominations and then miss on Best Director. It’s bizarre and I don’t think these two will miss this year but it’s baffling to me that they aren’t the favorites to win this.

Last One Out: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) – There are over two billion reasons why people want to see this guy get a nomination, not to mention the trickle down effect of so many people going to see Avatar has likely gotten some eyeballs on seeing some of these other films in the field. For the outstanding technical, commercial, and storytelling achievements this film made Cameron is fully deserving of a seat at the table. Although part of me can’t wait to see him get left out only to completely rip the Oscars apart.

Others to Watch: Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

No changes since my last round of predictions though there could be one very big upset coming and I hate it. Blanchett, Davis, and Yeoh have all picked up nominations from SAG, BAFTA, and the CCA so you can lock all three of them in. The big storyline coming out of the SAG nominations was that Michelle Williams was snubbed for Ana de Armas and now there’s rumor going around that the studio is quickly trying to scramble and get her into Best Supporting Actress, a category she likely would have swept, even if she probably doesn’t deserve too. While I’m on record thinking that Williams is overrated in The Fabelmans, Blonde is a dogshit movie and Ana de Armas getting in here would be a joke. One last name to watch is Andrea Risenborough in To Leslie, which has been picking up campaign steam both online and from her piers.

Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – Now that Williams is out of the conversation as a serious contender in this category its a race between Yeoh and Blanchett. The latter got a big win at the CCA and both are in the hunt for BAFTA and SAG but until the SAG winner is announced we still don’t have a true favorite here.

Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – Yeoh rocks in this movie, plain and simple.

Last One Out: Ana de Armas (Blonde) – Part of the fun of awards season is mostly rooting for the films we want to see do well. This case is the opposite. This was one of the one worst films to come out last year and while de Armas wasn’t the issue seeing this film get validation would be a joke. That being said, ADA is nominated in SAG and BAFTA and all signs point to her taking the place of Williams or Deadwyler.

Others to Watch: Mia Goth (Pearl), Rooney Mara (Women Talking), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Andrea Risenborough (To Leslie)

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Bill Nighy – Living

Adam Sandler – Hustle

Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighy have all been up for Golden Globes, SAG, CCA, BAFTA and most local critics awards and all but Nighy have been in a rotation of taking their turn to the stage. Like Best Actress, I don’t think a true favorite emerges until after SAG. As for that fifth spot, I have no idea. Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal were up for CCA (though they nominate six people), Mescal and Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You Rio Grande) are in BAFTA (also six nominees), but it was Adam Sandler that got the SAG award nomination. For the sake of guessing and that SAG and The Academy have the biggest crossover, I’m predicting that Hubie Haloween 2 will be led by Academy Award Nominee Adam Sandler.

Who Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Farrell and Butler won Globes and Fraser won at CCA. I can’t recall a legitimate three horse race like this for Best Actor in my lifetime. SAG will be the ultimate indicator of who the front runner is but I wouldn’t put money on any of these three.

Who Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – So since my last round of predictions I’ve gone out and seen The Whale. He’s incredible and completely deserves all the praise he’s been receiving. That said, for my taste it felt a little too Oscar bait-y. Between Fraser’s prosthetic driven performance and Austin Butler as this year’s musical biopic darling, they both just feel like performances aimed at winning awards. Perhaps this speaks more to the writing of their respective films, but Farrell’s performance stands out because of how under-the-top it feels compared to his competition and yet is all the more powerful.

Last One Out: Paul Mescal (Aftersun) – Shamefully Aftersun is probably the biggest name in the Oscar race that I haven’t seen at this point so I’m not able to speak to Mescal’s performance. That being said, he’s performed well in awards season and has received high praise from a number of those within the industry. Don’t be surprised if he gets in, hopefully it will make Aftersun more accessible.

Others to Watch: Diego Calva (Babylon), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jaime Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, a lot of people are going to be upset. Far and away the most wide open field this year, there’s a dozen performers that realistically could find themselves in here, making it prime for spoilers. Since my last round of predictions I’m taking out Claire Foy and dropping in Hong Chau. Having now seen both Women Talking and The Whale I think the idea that voters may not be able to separate Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy is a very real possibility and may decide to simply direct their votes toward Chau, who is deserving but likely is benefitting from Buckley and Foy stealing votes from one another. Bassett and Condon are the only locks at this point and I feel more confident in Curtis rather than Hsu but I’m almost positive there will be one actress from EEAAO in this field.

Who Will Win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – She just won a Globe and a CCA and is up for SAG and BAFTA so this could potentially be a sweep for Bassett assuming Condon doesn’t upset her at SAG.

Who Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Condon and Bassett’s performances are so different from one another that they’re difficult to compare though I feel Condon put out a more balanced performance throughout the entirety of Banshees as opposed to Bassett who was good throughout Wakanda Forever really feels like she’s being gifted this award because of one scene. Don’t get me wrong, it’s an awesome scene, I just think Condon does a better job.

Last One Out: Claire Foy (Women Talking) – I can think of the exact moment the broadcast would show from her performance should she make it into the field, I just think there’s not enough room this year for her.

Others to Watch: Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Kate Hudson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Sadie Sink (The Whale)

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Branden Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Ben Whishaw – Women Talking

At least we know who is going to win this one. Quan, Gleeson, and Keoghan all swept nominations for Globes, SAG, CCA, and BAFTA and while Dano missed out on BAFTA I’m fairly certain he’ll finally pick up the first of what should be his third or fourth nomination by now. While it may not be that crazy of a prediction I think one of the big upsets tomorrow will be Ben Whishaw getting in over Eddie Redmayne. Whishaw has missed BAFTA, CCA, and SAG but ironically I think he could pick up some votes for those feeling guilty to leaving out Buckley and Foy for Supporting Actress so Women Talking receives some praise. While the list of potential party crashers is short, I just don’t think Redmayne should be here. Anyone who saw The Good Nurse know his performance is all about one particular scene. Brian Tyree Henry or Albrect Schuch would make my day if either of them snuck in.

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – He’s gonna win.

Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – See above.

Last One Out: Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) – He’s done really well racking up nominations in awards season so far but they’re called snubs and surprises for a reason.

Others to Watch: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front)

Onto the craft fields. Like the previous installments I’m leaving out Best Documentary and the two categories for short films just because I haven’t seen any of them so guessing is pointless. Anywho, take a look. The * indicates who I think will win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale*

Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay


The Banshees of Inisherin*

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans


Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio*

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Wendell & Wild

Best Cinematography

The Batman


Empire of Light

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick*

Best Costume Design


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Everything Everywhere All At Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Film Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All At Once*

Top Gun: Maverick

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)*

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Quick note: RRR is not eligible for this as it was not India’s official selection for submission. It’s still eligible for everything else.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


The Whale

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front


The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

Best Original Song

“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Naatu Naatu” – RRR*

“Hold my Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

“New Body Rhumba” – White Noise

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water*


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Sound

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman


Everything Everywhere All At Once

Top Gun: Maverick*

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman


Top Gun: Maverick

Note: Everything Everywhere All At Once and RRR did not make the shortlist for Best Visual Effects, two films I had in my initial predictions and I’m very upset about this.

Final Breakdown

Everything Everywhere All At Once – 4/10

The Banshees of Inisherin – 2/9

Elvis – 2/7

Top Gun: Maverick – 2/7

Avatar: The Way of Water – 2/4

All Quiet on the Western Front – 1/9

The Fabelmans – 1/7

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 1/5

The Whale – 1/5

Babylon – 1/3

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1/2

RRR – 1/1

The Batman – 0/4

Tár – 0/5

Women Talking – 0/4

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – 0/2

Argentina, 1985 – 0/1

Aftersun – 0/1

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – 0/1

Decision to Leave – 0/1

Devotion – 0/1

Emancipation – 0/1

Empire of Light – 0/1

Hustle – 0/1

Living – 0/1

Marcel The Shell With Shoes On – 0/1

Nope – 0/1

The Quiet Girl – 0/1

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish – 0/1

The Inspection – 0/1

Till – 0/1

Turning Red – 0/1

Wendell & Wild – 0/1

White Noise – 0/1

The Woman King – 0/1

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