Academy Award Predictions: Round 3

Awards season is officially underway. The Golden Globes have passed, SAG nominations are out, and the fields are starting to take shape. Academy Award nominations are announced on January 24th so I’ll likely do my fourth round the day before but for now this is probably as much clarity as we’re going to get. Enjoy!

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans


Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Women Talking

So a few things have happened since my last round of predictions. Several guilds have released their award nominees and shortlists, the Golden Globes took place, and the SAG Awards announced their nominations. The front runners largely remains the same as at this point I’d guess that Banshees, Elvis, EEAAO, The Febelmans, Tár, and Top Gun are all locks at this point. Previously I had RRR in here as my token international nomination but All Quiet has blown that film away with all the love its getting from the guilds. Those last three spots are probably a toss up between Avatar, Babylon, The Whale, The Woman King, and Women Talking. No film has taken a hit more than Women Talking as director Sarah Polley and its cast have routinely been overlooked by the guilds, though it is hanging on thanks to a SAG Ensemble nomination.

Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once While I have six locks among the nominees at this point I think this is a three horse race between EEAAO, Banshees, and The Fabelmans. Banshees has been cleaning up in writing and several key acting races and is routinely one of, if not the, most nominated film in certain awards races. The Fabelmans does have the ‘legacy winner’ narrative tied to it but Michelle Williams missing out on SAG could be indicative of how actors, the largest branch of the Academy, view the film. Everything Everywhere All At Once is coming off two key acting wins at the Globes, five SAG nominations, and could end up as this year’s most nominated film. Plus, in my opinion its just the best movie of the year.

Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once See above.

Last One Out: Babylon Despite the film flopping and receiving mixed reviews it did just snag a SAG Ensemble nominee, even if Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt, and Diego Calva missed out on their individual nominees. Still, its Damien Chazelle and the film should have at least three nominations coming its way in the crafts.

Others to Watch: Babylon, The Batman, Decision to Leave, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, RRR, She Said, The Whale

Best Director

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Baz Luhrmann – Elvis

Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Todd Field – Tár

My big change here is swapping in Baz Luhrmann for Sarah Polley. Women Talking is just not resonating with voters and I would actually go so far to say Elvis has probably leap-frogged Tár in most categories aside from Best Actress. Luhrmann has actually never received a Best Director nomination which is surprising because for someone with his filmography and someone who famously does a whole lot of directing this may be a legacy nomination.

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – Like The Power of the Dog last year I think there’s a very realistic chance that the film that wins Best Director will be the only win that film gets. McDonagh is cleaning up the writing awards, even though his film is technically ineligible for a WGA nomination for some reason, and EEAAO could potentially win three acting awards (more on that later) and Best Picture so Best Director could be Steven Spielberg’s legacy/consolation prize.

Who Should Win: Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – I maintain my take that this is the best film of the year and that two relative newcomers like the Daniels just won’t have the support of their piers quite like Spielberg will.

Last One Out: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) – The Academy has been more open to letting foreign directors into this category in recent years and All Quiet on the Western Front has been crushing it with the guilds. If any foreign film can crash the party this year I believe its this one.

Others to Watch: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick), Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Viola Davis – The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

As expected Blanchett and Yeoh won at the Globes and they both picked up SAG nominations. The SAG awards will be the first real domino to fall in this race but my gut still says Yeoh. The big storyline in this category here though is Michelle Williams missing out on SAG in favor of Ana de Armas. While I don’t necessarily agree Williams should be getting the love she’s receiving, how the FUCK did de Armas slip in here instead of her? Blonde is pure trash and I can’t imagine Williams missing out on a nomination if The Fabelmans is a legitimate Best Picture front runner. Also, great to see Deadwyler and Davis pick up deserving noms for SAG.

Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – As I’ve said before, Yeoh gives a performance for the ages and after 40 years in the industry she’s finally getting her flowers. Again, this is a race between Blanchett and Yeoh and whoever wins SAG will go on to win the Oscar.

Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – See above.

Last One Out: Margot Robbie (Babylon) – She missed out on SAG though the film picked up an Ensemble nomination. Davis has moved ahead of her and has picked up nominations in most major races. Despite what most people are saying about Babylon one of the consensus agreements is that Robbie is one of the biggest highlights of the film.

Others to Watch: Ana de Armas (Blonde), Mia Goth (Pearl), Rooney Mara (Women Talking)

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Bill Nighy – Living

Jeremy Pope – The Inspection

I’m sticking with my picks from last time. Butler, Farrell, and Fraser are all taking turns picking up wins, with Butler and Farrell taking home Globes, and Bill Nighy seems to be cemented as the fourth nominee which leaves that fifth one up in the air. Adam Sandler picked up a well-deserved SAG nomination but at the Golden Globes Jeremy Pope received an extended shoutout from mega producer Ryan Murphy during his lifetime achievement award speech. Could Murphy’s words turn more heads toward Pope’s performance? Maybe but whether its Sandler or Pope, they’re not going to win.

Who Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Farrell crushed with the critics and just picked up a key win at the Globes but Austin Butler is hot on his tail. Like Best Actress, whoever wins SAG will be the first big shoe to drop here. However, I wouldn’t say that the SAG winner and the Oscar winner being the same isn’t a lock.

Who Should Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – As I’ve said before, Farrell’s performance was so unique and is arguably the best he’s ever been. Plus, he had a huge year with Thirteen Lives, After Yang, and The Batman.

Last One Out: Adam Sandler (Hustle) – The Sand-man picked up a much needed SAG nomination after missing out on several other key races. While he doesn’t have much of a shot at winning, there’s no doubt out of anyone in any race this year Sandler is the one that fans are rooting for to make it into the race.

Others to Watch: Diego Calva (Babylon), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jaime Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Claire Foy – Women Talking

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

This field is putting my brain in a pretzel. Originally I had Carey Mulligan winning then I took her out of the field last time. Women Talking has performed poorly at practically every turn aside from their SAG ensemble nomination. Buckley and Foy are cannibalizing each other. Hsu and Curtis both picked up SAG nominations and I think at this point Curtis is probably a lock for a nomination. Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe so she has some momentum though I can’t help but think that Kerry Condon is waiting for her moment. SAG will be very telling here, especially if Hong Chau can pull off an upset.

Who Will Win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – Again, SAG will be telling here but Bassett is at least winning some of these awards, something Condon is struggling with despite being a consensus nominee. She just won the Golden Globe so she has a little momentum. The Hollywood Foreign Press doesn’t always overlap with the Academy but Bassett is a long-renowned character actress that seems to have the respect of her piers. Her being able to give an awards speech was a great chance for her to campaign for herself but again, SAG is going to establish the front runner.

Who Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Martin McDonagh gave her a big shoutout during his Golden Globes speech and noted how she stole the movie from a stacked cast. And he’s right! Her performance is both hilarious and heart-breaking and I’m hoping that her relative unknown status won’t give Bassett or Curtis and edge here.

Last One Out: Hong Chau (The Whale) – She hasn’t done particularly well with the critics and she missed out on a Globes nomination but by picking up a SAG nomination she’s officially knocking on the door of her first nomination. One thing that could keep her out at this point is voters trying to make up for the lack of love Women Talking has received and giving Foy or Buckley that last spot.

Others to Watch: Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Kate Hudson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano – The Fabelmans

Branden Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

I’m going with the SAG nominations here but this is also the only one of the four acting categories where it feels like we’re as positive as we can be who is going to win. Ke Huy Quan is going to continue is dominance. Dano, Gleeson, and Keoghan all feel locked in at this point and Eddie Redmayne has performed rather well this season. I previously had Brian Tyree Henry in that fifth spot and I’m not ruling him out at this point but not getting SAG, especially losing out to an industry favorite like Redmayne, is probably indicative that it may not happen. Brad Pitt also needs to stay in the conversation and there’s also a narrative where Ben Whishaw becomes the only actor nominated for Women Talking.

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – He’s gonna win.

Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) – See above.

Last One Out: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) – Not getting SAG certainly hurts his chances but there’s a little hope that maybe a late push from Apple could bump him back into the conversation. Now that Emancipation and Cha Cha Real Smooth are out of the race completely if there’s any eggs for them to put them to put into one basket its probably Henry in Best Supporting Actor.

Others to Watch: Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

Now let’s dive into some of the craft fields. Several guilds have already announced their list of nominees so it’s wise to go with the guilds. The writers guild oddly announced that A LOT of contenders aren’t eligible so don’t read too far into those awards. The cinematographers really shook up the race with their list of nominees with The Batman and Bardo crashing the party.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Top Gun: Maverick*

The Whale

Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay


The Banshees of Inisherin*

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans


Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio*

Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Wendell & Wild

Best Cinematography


Empire of Light

The Fabelmans


Top Gun: Maverick*

Best Costume Design


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Woman King

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All At Once*

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)*

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Holy Spider (Denmark)

Quick note: RRR is not eligible for this as it was not India’s official selection for submission. It’s still eligible for everything else.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman*

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


The Whale

Best Original Score


The Banshees of Inisherin


The Fabelmans

Women Talking

Best Original Song

“Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Ciao Papa” – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Naatu Naatu” – RRR

“Hold my Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick*

“New Body Rhumba” – White Noise

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water*


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Sound

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman


Everything Everywhere All At Once

Top Gun: Maverick*

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Top Gun: Maverick

Note: Everything Everywhere All At Once and RRR did not make the shortlist for Best Visual Effects, two films I had in my initial predictions and I’m very upset about this.

Final Breakdown

Everything Everywhere All At Once – 4/10

Top Gun: Maverick – 4/7

The Banshees of Inisherin – 2/9

Avatar: The Way of Water – 2/4

The Fabelmans – 1/8

Elvis – 1/8

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – 1/6

All Quiet on the Western Front – 1/5

Babylon – 1/3

The Batman – 1/3

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1/2

Tár – 0/5

Women Talking – 0/4

The Whale – 0/3

The Woman King – 0/3

Aftersun – 0/1

Causeway – 0/1

Devotion – 0/1

Emancipation – 0/1

Empire of Light – 0/1

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – 0/1

Living – 0/1

Marcel The Shell With Shoes On – 0/1

Nope – 0/1

Puss In Boots: The Last Wish – 0/1

RRR – 0/1

The Good Nurse – 0/1

The Inspection – 0/1

Till – 0/1

Turning Red – 0/1

Wendell & Wild – 0/1

White Noise – 0/1

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